🔶 After the Strait of Hormuz, where is the next destination of the Middle East crisis?

🔶 After the Strait of Hormuz, where is the next destination of the Middle East crisis?

🔻 A report by Atfeh Chaharmahali

Attacks in the Persian Gulf have stopped, but the crisis continues to swing between the duality of escalation or containment—hovering between diplomacy, deterrence, and a pendulum-like turn toward military action.

While Donald Trump speaks of the start of a new round of talks with Iran, Tehran rejects any direct negotiations with the United States and only reports consultations with Oman regarding the mechanism for passage and transit through the Strait of Hormuz. This comes as, following the publication of a list of energy infrastructure in the countries of the region by Fars news agency, diplomatic activity by Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries increased, and the direct conversation between Mohammad bin Salman and Donald Trump—aimed at preventing the expansion of the conflict—once again brought the risks to energy security in the region to the center of attention.

According to reports released by Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar have expressed concern about the consequences of the expansion of war for energy security and regional maritime trade. The core of these concerns is the possibility of damage to refineries and energy facilities, disruption to oil and gas exports, and the insecurity of the Strait of Hormuz and the shipping routes. Based on these reports, Riyadh, in contact with Washington, has emphasized the possibility of continuing the path of diplomacy and the necessity of avoiding escalation of the conflict; because, as bin Salman said, the expansion of war and any disruption to the flow of energy exports could “affect ‘regional and international’ security and stability.”

Under these conditions, the question circulating among people is this: if the negotiations do not produce results, will the security of the energy infrastructure of the Persian Gulf become the focus of another episode of this crisis, or will the players’ shared concern about the economic costs of war help them succeed in containing the crisis? This report, by examining developments from the past few days and talking with two experts, seeks to address whether energy security is increasingly playing a more decisive role in managing this crisis, and what scenarios would face the region in the event of a possible failure of the negotiations.