Jaber Rajabi, a political analyst, said that the Islamic Republic made a miscalculation with the October 7 attack and believed that this attack could create a major political crisis for Israel and disrupt the process of normalizing relations between Israel and Arab countries.

He added that the Islamic Republic thought that by taking hostages it could force Israel to back down, but Israel’s response and the support it received from various countries changed Tehran’s calculations. According to Rajabi, after October 7 the Islamic Republic lost a large part of its regional standing, and the axis supported by Tehran has entered a path of attrition and weakening.