🔸Appointment of Mohsen Rezaei; The beginning of a new era in the Islamic Republic?

🔻A report by Mitra Shojaei

After several days of rumors, speculation, and confirmations and denials, in the final hours of Sunday, 18 Mordad, it was officially announced that Mohammad-Baqer Zolqader, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, has resigned, and that Mohsen Rezaei has been introduced as his replacement by Mojtaba Khamenei and Massoud Pezeshkian.

This comes while Zolqader’s appointment to this post had taken place in Farvardin, and after the killing of Ali Larijani in attacks by the United States and Israel, and his term on that seat lasted only four months.

From the very beginning, there was speculation over who would sit on the highest security decision-making body in the Islamic Republic—Mohsen Rezaei or Zolqader. Both names were heard as candidates for the post, but in the end, Zolqader was chosen.

At that time, amid the United States and Israel attacks on Iran, choosing a military figure who also had a record of suppressing domestic dissent sent a clear message through the Supreme National Security Council: an iron fist inside and outside the country.

Now, four months have passed. The war has subsided, an agreement with the United States has been signed, and negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz—whose authority has in practice been in the hands of the IRGC forces ever since—are still ongoing without result.

Now the leaders of the Islamic Republic, who consider themselves to have won the 40-day war, are seeking greater stability and, probably, the achievement of certain goals at the negotiating table by resigning or removing Zolqader, rather than the battlefield.

This suspicion is reinforced when we see that exactly one day before this resignation or the order to resign, Zolqader presented conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz—conditions that, in essence, would have made any agreement on this matter impossible.

In a statement published with the signature of the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, he wrote: “Until America corrects its behavior, the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened. Correcting behavior means:

1- Never threaten Iran in any way or language, and never insult the sacred beliefs of this nation 2- End forever the war and aggression against Iran and Iran’s allies in Lebanon, Palestine, Yemen, and Iraq 3- Remove the naval blockade and withdraw its military forces (naval and air) from around Iran 4- Pay, without any reduction, the damages from the two aggressive and imposed wars against Iran 5- Remove the unjust and unlawful sanctions against the Iranian people 6- Unconditionally release the assets that have been blocked and stolen from the Iranian people.”

A few hours after the publication of this statement, The New York Times reported that the Islamic Republic, by presenting fresh conditions, has reduced hopes for the rapid reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Approximately 30 hours after this statement was published, Zolqader’s resignation was announced and Mohsen Rezaei was named as his replacement.

Frzaneh Badarpoor, a political analyst, tells Deutsche Welle: “Since the violation of the ceasefire and the attack on a Qatari oil tanker, differences between the Pezeshkian government and the war-mongering faction of the IRGC have become externally evident. It seems that Mohammad-Baqer Zolqader was at the head of a current in the IRGC that defended the continuation of tensions until the complete withdrawal of America from the region and the removal of the naval blockade.”

This analysis fully matches the simultaneity of the publication of the six conditions and Zolqader’s resignation.

Badarpoor continues this analysis by saying: “In a situation where Pezeshkian was in Iraq and Arbabchi had gotten a deadline from the Americans for mourning the slain leader, the start of attacks by the hardline wing practically weakened the position of the Pezeshkian government and the more moderate forces in negotiations with the United States and Arab countries.

In the midst of the crisis, Pezeshkian tried to attribute the disruption of the ceasefire to provocative actions by America and Oman and not make the split at the top of the system public; but after passing the crisis, apparently a more fundamental decision was made to resolve this conflict.”

She says that for about a month, the idea of sidelining Zolqader had been raised, but Pezeshkian did not want to directly assume responsibility for dismissing him, and for that reason this “dismissal” took place with the entry of Mojtaba Khamenei.

Before the Presidential Office announced the acceptance of Zolqader’s resignation and the appointment of Mohsen Rezaei, Mojtaba Khamenei’s account on the social media platform X announced: “An order was issued by His Eminence Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei; the appointment of Dr. Mohsen Rezaei as the representative of the Leader of the Revolution in the Supreme National Security Council.”

Hussein Razagh, a political analyst, believes that in current conditions the system’s top priority is to stabilize the new period of the Leader’s leadership and governance, and he thinks that Mohsen Rezaei can help the government in this stabilization because: “He goes among the people, is populist, and is strongly in favor within the body of the IRGC and is influential.”

Read the full text of the report on the website of Deutsche Welle Persian.

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