COP31 Antalya: What Is Being Negotiated and Why It Matters

What is COP31 and when does it end?

COP31 is the 2026 UN climate summit, held in Antalya on Türkiye's Mediterranean coast from 9 to 20 November 2026 ^[1]. UN News reported that nearly 200 countries arrived for the opening and that more than 90,000 people were expected in the city ^[1]. The summit is scheduled to close on Friday, 20 November ^[1].

COP stands for Conference of the Parties to the UN climate convention. Each year, governments meet to negotiate the detailed rules and decisions that sit under the 2015 Paris Agreement. Carbon Brief notes that the centrepiece of every summit is the negotiation of a large number of legal texts, haggled over in the closed “blue zone” by diplomats from nearly 200 nations, this year not including the US ^[3].

Opening the summit on 9 November, UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell told delegates that “progress is nowhere near far enough or fair enough” and urged them to “supercharge solutions” ^[1]. “No COP is a silver bullet,” he added ^[1]. Former COP21 president Laurent Fabius told Reuters that “the key word in Antalya is implementation” ^[2].

For the science that frames the talks, see State of the Climate 2026: What WMO's COP31 Report Says, which covers the World Meteorological Organization report released for the summit.

Who is running COP31?

Türkiye hosts COP31 and holds the presidency, but Australia runs the negotiations, an unusual arrangement agreed at COP30 ^[1][3]. Türkiye's Environment Minister Murat Kurum took the gavel as COP31 President on the opening morning, while Australia's Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen oversees the negotiations as “president of negotiations” ^[1][3].

“Our decisions must take shape in a city's infrastructure, on a farmer's land and along a factory's production line. Families must feel their impact in lower energy bills,” Kurum told delegates ^[1].

Bowen announced a plan to build a presidency-led decision throughout the conference rather than waiting until the final days ^[1]. “We know there will be a difference of views – on the value of the decision, on its elements, on how far we go. But our job is to work to close those differences and provide the most ambitious, most outcome-orientated decision that consensus will allow,” he said ^[1].

Carbon Brief reports that the pair intend to produce a “cover text”, an overarching political document that summarises key outcomes and can include issues not on the official agenda ^[3]. That document has become one of the first flashpoints of the summit, covered below.

What is the COP31 35-by-35 electrification pledge?

It is a voluntary pledge, led by Türkiye and Australia, to raise electricity's share of global final energy consumption to 35% by 2035, from about 23% today, according to Climate Home News ^[5]. Reuters describes the hosts' aim as putting electrification at the centre of a final deal ^[2]. Carbon Brief notes the target could also appear in the cover text ^[3].

The pledge does not specify how the extra electricity should be generated ^[5]. That is the main criticism. Reuters reports critics say it may do little to curb warming without a clearer plan to reduce fossil-fuel use ^[2].

As of 12 November, at least 14 countries had publicly endorsed it, according to a Climate Home News analysis of speeches and statements ^[5]. Alongside Australia (which co-leads the pledge with Türkiye) and Ethiopia, they include Germany, Norway, Finland, South Korea, Pakistan, Zimbabwe, Eswatini, Togo, Liechtenstein, Palau, Seychelles and the Solomon Islands ^[5]. The European Union was widely expected to join once member states formally approved it ^[5]. The presidency is not expected to publish a full list of backers until the second week ^[5].

Support comes with conditions. Palau said electrification “must not become a substitute or a distraction” from transitioning away from fossil fuels, and Seychelles said electrifying more activities while continuing to burn fossil fuels “will not deliver the full economic or climate benefits” ^[5]. Saudi Arabia's energy minister argued that expanding electrification “does not necessarily mean cutting emissions” if its sources are ignored ^[5]. Bowen has defended the design, saying “electrification is almost always a good thing” ^[5].

Why is climate finance the hardest issue at COP31?

Because developing countries want faster access to money, while new pledges from rich countries have dropped sharply ^[1][4]. UN News called finance one of the toughest issues, with developing countries seeking faster access to funding for adaptation and cleaner development ^[1].

Carbon Brief analysis published on 11 November found that public climate-finance pledges from developed countries have fallen by more than 70% in 2026 ^[4]. Most multi-year pledges expired in 2025, and only five nations have announced new ones, with the UK the only major donor among them ^[4]. As a result, pledged public climate finance for the coming years amounts to about $11.7 billion a year, down from recent levels of around $40 billion ^[4].

Carbon Brief says the US, which committed to $11.4 billion a year under the previous administration, will not provide any official climate finance in the coming years after withdrawing from the Paris Agreement again ^[4]. Experts cited by Carbon Brief point to conflict, fiscal pressure and political shifts in donor countries ^[4].

There are smaller moves. Climate Home News reports that the Solomon Islands pledged $400,000 to the Green Climate Fund, the first small island state to do so, and that the UK, Norway and Canada announced a partnership, with Norway's prime minister citing a joint ambition to provide and mobilise $10 billion in international climate finance by 2030, including private capital ^[6]. Developing countries are also championing a climate-finance work programme to discuss scaling up public money ^[4].

What else is on the COP31 negotiating agenda?

More than 100 separate items, of which three stand out: adaptation, the mitigation work programme and a just-transition mechanism ^[3][7]. Carbon Brief's tracker counted 102 substantive agenda items before the opening ^[3]. By day four, 12 November, 11 had been postponed or deferred, 44 had some form of draft text and 48 had none, which Carbon Brief described as normal at that stage ^[7].

• Global goal on adaptation. Countries are trying to finalise this goal ^[3]. The 12 November draft offers three options on the COP30 aim to triple adaptation finance: no text, moving the issue to the climate finance work programme, or defining the baseline as $40 billion in 2025, rising to $120 billion by 2035 ^[7].
• Mitigation work programme. Parties disagree on whether this emissions-cutting process should continue to 2030 or 2040 ^[7]. The draft also contains bracketed text on a permanent “mitigation committee”, an idea attributed to Switzerland in the draft ^[7].
• Just transition. Negotiators are working on the details of a new just transition mechanism, called the Belém-Antalya mechanism for global just transitions ^[3].
• Finance items. COP30 added climate finance under Article 9.1 and aligning finance flows under Article 2.1c to future agendas ^[3].

Square brackets in a draft mean wording is not agreed yet, so drafts with many brackets point to deep disagreement ^[3]. An item is settled once all brackets are resolved, and formally adopted when the COP president gavels it through at the closing plenary ^[3].

Will COP31 produce a cover decision?

It is not certain. A cover decision is planned, but Russia, Saudi Arabia and the Like-Minded Developing Countries have questioned whether one is needed at all ^[3][6]. Climate Home News reported on 12 November that Russia, Saudi Arabia and the Like-Minded Developing Countries, a group that includes India and China, had questioned the legitimacy of the process proposed by Australia and whether a cover decision is needed at all ^[6].

Analysts quoted by Climate Home News link the pushback to the presidency's unusual approach of leading the cover-text process from the start rather than late in the talks ^[6]. “They wanted to have full transparency and give countries a chance to prepare, but it's also opened them up for criticism,” said Cosima Cassel of E3G ^[6]. Analysts quoted by Climate Home News said it was unclear whether the opposition is a true red line or negotiating leverage ^[6].

Supporters want the text to include:

• a strong response to warming overshooting the 1.5°C limit, called for by small island and European states, among others ^[6];
• language on methane, forests, access to climate finance and loss and damage, requested by some countries ^[6];
• the electrification target ^[3].

Climate Home News reported that Australia was expected to publish a summary of initial discussions on Friday 13 November and receive written submissions due on Saturday 14 November, when a first draft of the cover decision was likely ^[6]. These dates are as reported on 12 November and may shift.

Why does COP31 matter if it is not a landmark year?

Because it tests whether existing promises turn into action, against a backdrop of rising temperatures and falling finance ^[1][2][4]. UN News describes COP31 as focused on turning existing commitments into action rather than delivering a single landmark agreement ^[1]. Carbon Brief notes it falls halfway between two global stocktakes, the periodic reviews of collective progress ^[3].

The stakes are concrete. Reuters reports that a UN report last month found the world on course to break through the 1.5°C warming limit ^[2]. UN News noted that a powerful El Niño is threatening to worsen extreme weather ^[1]; see El Niño 2026: How Strong It Is and What It Means for Winter for what that means for the coming months. UN News also reported that a severe drought in Bolivia has killed more than 75,000 head of livestock and affected over 114,000 families, according to official figures ^[1].

Geopolitics weighs on the talks. Leaders including Brazil's President Lula told the summit that wars and trade disputes had pushed climate down the agenda; “We started talking more about weapons and tariffs than the survival of future generations,” Lula said ^[2]. UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that “the climate crisis is outrunning us” ^[2]. Reuters notes that the US skipped the talks for a second year and that other G7 countries did not send their top leaders ^[2].

Agriculture is also on the table: UN News says food and agriculture account for roughly one third of global greenhouse gas emissions, and countries are reviewing the Sharm el-Sheikh programme on agriculture and food security ^[1].

What happens next at COP31?

Negotiators carry on after the leaders' speeches, with the formal close set for 20 November ^[1]. Leaders addressed the summit on 11 November before handing back to negotiators ^[2]. The key steps to watch:

• A first cover-decision draft, expected around Saturday 14 November if the process holds ^[6].
• A list of 35-by-35 backers, which the presidency is expected to publish in the second week ^[5].
• Finance pledges, with few new ones so far and developing countries pushing a finance work programme ^[4].
• Adaptation and mitigation texts, where options and brackets show the gaps still to close ^[7].

Methane is another thread. Climate Home News reports that France called for a strong methane reference in the cover decision, and that Australia said it would sign a voluntary pledge on near-zero methane emissions in the fossil fuel sector ^[6]. Climate Home News reports that the 2028 global stocktake will be concluded at COP33 ^[6].

Every final decision needs consensus and is adopted only when the president gavels it through at the closing plenary ^[3]. Until then, any draft can change. This guide reflects the state of play on 13 November 2026 and will need updating when the summit ends.