Mehdi Maslehi, an oil market analyst, said that reducing the loading of Iran’s oil does not mean it is definitively exported, and that the U.S. maritime blockade, ship-to-ship transfers, and the traditional mechanisms for evading sanctions have faced serious obstacles.

He added that despite the continued exports of Saudi Arabia and other regional producers, the global market is not facing a shortage of physical oil, and that the rise in prices is more driven by transportation and insurance risks and limited access to certain types of oil.