🔶 Likelihood of maintaining OPEC+ supply policy amid Iran war

Two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters that the OPEC+ alliance, at its meeting on Sunday, September 6 (September 15 Shahrivar), will likely keep its oil production policy for October unchanged.

The sources added that before deciding on the next steps, the group needs to reach an agreement on new production quotas.

The meeting is being held as Iran’s war continues to disrupt oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, reducing OPEC+’s influence on prices and market share. Unlike in the past, this group’s supply decisions have had a limited impact on the market.

In August, OPEC+ agreed to increase production for September and implemented the final step of the gradual rollback of the 1.65 million barrels per day production cuts (approved in 2023). However, due to wartime conditions, the actual production level of the alliance, including OPEC countries and allies such as Russia, remains far below the targets set.

According to the schedule, another part of the production cuts by the 21-member group will remain in place until the end of 2026.