In an analytical note, the Wynet website wrote that the Islamic Republic, due to its geographical expanse, population, and ethnic diversity, will not have its government changed as a result of a large-scale military operation, and that a more effective strategy is to create areas in which the government gradually loses control, while at the same time forming local administrations supported by Western political, economic, and security backing.

The outlet, citing the experience of Israel’s operations against Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Islamic Republic, wrote that targeting leaders and military infrastructure, without creating replacement governance structures, does not lead to lasting change and provides these groups and the government with the opportunity to rebuild power.

According to Wynet, the experience of Gaza showed that the lack of an alternative for administering areas allowed Hamas to preserve its influence, whereas in Lebanon, strengthening the government and the army with support from the United States and Israel can reduce Hezbollah’s influence in the long term.

The analysis concludes that governments such as the Islamic Republic can replace their leaders, but the gradual loss of control over territory and population significantly weakens their ability to rebuild power.