Black Sea blockade following intensified Russia-Ukraine war has disrupted wheat exports and increased the risk of a food supply shock.

According to Bloomberg, Russia and Ukraine control more than a quarter of global wheat trade, which means a share similar to the Strait of Hormuz’s share in maritime oil trade.

Wheat exports from these two countries during this year’s harvest season are estimated at about half of last year’s figure. Egypt, the world’s largest buyer of wheat, has received no grain from the Black Sea for about a month, and wheat prices have risen to the highest level in three years.

Caitlin Welsh, an expert in food security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said: “The world is underestimating the impact of these attacks.”