Bitcoin Price Prediction: What Analysts Say After the Drop

What do analysts predict for the bitcoin price now?

There is no consensus: after bitcoin fell to about $62,500 on 13-14 November 2026, published analyst views ranged from a possible slide toward $40,000 to a recovery above $90,000 ^[3][1][6]. On 15 November CoinGecko showed bitcoin near $64,600 ^[8].

Most near-term calls are framed as levels rather than dates. Analysts name a support level, where they think buyers may appear, and say what could happen if it breaks. DWF Labs' Martin Lee, for example, told TokenPost that a weekly close below the $68,000 area would put $60,000 in view ^[2]. FXEmpire's Alejandro Arrieche described $62,500 as the last line of defence before a retest of June's lows near $58,000 ^[4].

Bullish analysts tend to describe conditions instead of targets. Matt Mena of 21Shares said a recovery toward $87,000 and an eventual push above $90,000 could still be possible, but only after bitcoin reclaims $70,000 and then $74,000 ^[1].

The table below lists the main attributed views published on 13 and 14 November 2026. For why the price fell in the first place, read Pouyam's guide Bitcoin Below $65,000: Why Is Bitcoin Still Falling? This guide focuses on what analysts expect next.

How low could bitcoin go, according to bearish analysts?

The bearish levels most often cited are $62,000, $60,000 and $58,000, while analyst Benjamin Cowen described a scenario in which bitcoin falls about 30% below its 200-week moving average, toward $40,000 ^[2][4][3].

Lacie Zhang, research lead at Bitget Wallet, told TokenPost she saw $68,000 as first support, followed by $65,000 and $62,000 if selling continued ^[2]. Bitcoin has already traded below the first two of those levels ^[6]. Martin Lee of DWF Labs compared the setup with November 2025, when bitcoin fell below its 50-week average near $100,000 before declining toward $60,000 ^[2].

FXEmpire's Arrieche said that if the $62,500 area is lost, the next stop would probably be around $58,000, near the lows of late June ^[4]. He also noted the daily Relative Strength Index was in extreme oversold territory, which can come before a short-term bounce ^[4].

Cowen's view, reported by Benzinga, is the most bearish. He pointed to sharp falls after US midterm elections in November 2014, 2018 and 2022, suggested a bottom could come in December or early January, and said the 200-week average may not hold, as in 2015 and 2020 when bitcoin fell roughly 30% below it ^[3].

What would it take for bitcoin to recover, according to bullish analysts?

Bullish analysts say bitcoin first needs to win back the levels it lost this week, starting with $70,000 and $74,000, and that a lasting rise above $90,000 would likely need easier interest rate expectations or renewed buying by large holders ^[1][5].

Mena of 21Shares said holding $69,000 would help build a base, while a break below it would leave $65,000 open to another test, which has since happened ^[1][6]. He pointed to bitcoin's late-August rise from about $62,000 to $78,000 in three days as evidence that momentum can turn quickly ^[1].

Mena also cited seasonality, saying the fourth quarter has historically been bitcoin's best, averaging returns of over 61% ^[1]. Past averages include very different years and do not predict any single quarter.

James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, told Unchained that a short squeeze can lift prices quickly, but a durable recovery needs buyers willing to commit fresh money ^[5]. Checkonchain analyst James Check, quoted by CoinDesk, said prices had entered a deep value zone last seen in February and late June, while stressing that this does not mean the bottom is in ^[6].

What is the 200-week moving average, and why do analysts watch it?

The 200-week moving average is bitcoin's average weekly price over roughly the past four years; analysts watch it because it has marked the area of several past cycle lows ^[2][3]. It changes slowly, so it is used as a long-term reference rather than a precise prediction.

DWF Labs' Lee told TokenPost that the $68,000 area was important because it sat near the 200-week average, and that a weekly break below it would put $60,000 in view ^[2]. He also said bitcoin was on track to finish below its 50-week average near $75,000, just eight weeks after moving back above it ^[2].

The line has not always held. Cowen, quoted by Benzinga, said bitcoin fell roughly 30% below the 200-week average in 2015 and 2020 before recovering ^[3]. That is why some analysts treat the average as a zone to watch rather than a guaranteed floor.

Other measures used in these forecasts include the MVRV Z-score, which compares market value with the average price at which coins last moved. Cowen said it stood at 0.565, against readings below zero at previous bottoms ^[3].

Is Standard Chartered's $100,000 bitcoin forecast still possible?

Standard Chartered's year-end 2026 target, last reported at $100,000, would require bitcoin to rise more than 50% from about $64,600 in roughly six weeks ^[7][8]. The percentage is Pouyam's calculation from the cited figures, not a statement by the bank.

Geoff Kendrick, the bank's global head of digital asset research, cut the year-end target to $100,000 from $150,000 in a 12 February report and at that time expected bitcoin to fall to around $50,000 before recovering, Cointelegraph reported ^[7]. In August, with bitcoin near $76,844 after a strong week, Kendrick wrote that for the first time that year there was a risk his $100,000 forecast was too low ^[7].

The sources used here cite no updated public target from the bank after the November drop. Readers should treat the $100,000 figure as an older forecast made in different market conditions.

The same Cointelegraph report recorded bitcoin's all-time high at $126,000 ^[7]. At about $64,600, bitcoin was roughly half that level on 15 November ^[8].

How much does the Fed's December decision matter for bitcoin forecasts?

It matters a great deal to some forecasts: Benjamin Cowen names the Federal Reserve's December meeting as a catalyst, and bitcoin fell below $70,000 on 13 November as markets priced in a likely rate rise ^[3][9].

CoinDesk reported on 13 November that, after this week's hotter-than-expected inflation data, the CME FedWatch tool showed an 88% chance of a 25-basis-point rate rise at the Fed's 8-9 December meeting ^[9]. TokenPost noted that October consumer prices rose 0.4% on the month, above the 0.3% forecast, which lifted expectations of a December hike ^[2].

Cowen argued that a hawkish Fed could trigger a final wave of selling that resets valuations and sets up a stronger recovery in 2027, while a higher low without that reset could leave the risk of another downturn later in 2027 ^[3]. Butterfill said a lasting move above $90,000 would likely need expectations of easier monetary policy ^[5].

FXEmpire also pointed to politics, saying the US midterm election results had reduced industry hopes for supportive crypto legislation in 2027 ^[4].

How reliable are bitcoin price predictions?

Not very: forecasts for bitcoin are frequently revised, often point in opposite directions, and rest on patterns from a short and unusual price history ^[7][3][1].

Standard Chartered's own path shows this. The bank cut its year-end target by a third in February, then said in August that the lower target might be too low, and bitcoin later fell below $63,000 in November ^[7][6]. Analysts quoted in this guide, looking at the same market in the same week, published levels from $40,000 to above $90,000 ^[3][1].

Many forecasts rely on cycles tied to past halvings or elections, seasonal averages and technical lines. These describe what happened before; they do not guarantee what happens next. Bitcoin's data covers only a few full cycles, so each pattern rests on very few examples.

Pouyam does not give investment advice. The figures in this guide are attributed opinions, reported as published, and are not recommendations to buy, sell or hold.

How should I read a bitcoin price prediction?

Check who made it, what conditions it depends on, the time frame, and whether the author has a commercial interest, before giving any forecast weight ^[1][4].

• Look for the condition: most calls say what happens if a level holds or breaks, not what will happen ^[1][2].
• Note the date: a forecast from August was made with bitcoin near $76,844 and may no longer fit ^[7].
• Check the source's business: fund issuers, exchanges and trading firms all publish market views ^[1][2].
• Compare at least two opposing views, such as 21Shares and Benjamin Cowen this week ^[1][3].
• Ignore anyone who promises a guaranteed target or asks you to send coins.
• Watch scheduled events, especially the Fed's December meeting, which can quickly change the picture ^[9].