Goldman Sachs said Brent oil prices could rise to beyond $120 per barrel by this fall if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue

Goldman Sachs said that if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, the price of Brent oil could rise to beyond $120 per barrel by this fall.

Based on a report by the bank’s analysts that Bloomberg published, this scenario is not Goldman’s base case. The bank’s current forecast is for Brent at $80 in the fourth quarter and $75 next year, conditional on reduced tensions in the Middle East.

The analysts wrote that the risks to this forecast are “tilted to the upside,” because shipping disruptions in Hormuz and, likely, in the Red Sea

Based on Goldman’s estimate, oil flows from the Persian Gulf have fallen to less than 45% of the level before the war.

Brent prices had risen to more than $126 toward the end of April and in the first stage of the war.