Against Iran or China? How much does freedom of the Iranian people matter to the United States and Israel?

Against Iran or China? How much does freedom of the Iranian people matter to the United States and Israel?

The United States had a simple formula: I’ll cut off your money, put your government under pressure, and eventually you’ll be forced to back down. On paper everything made sense; but there was one problem: oil found its way.

The Islamic Republic had oil; Venezuela had it too, and China was its buyer. Oil went out and money came back—on ships whose names and flags were changed, with front companies and intermediaries that each time found a new route to bypass the sanctions. The U.S. would close one route, and the other side would open another. And here an important thing would happen: the money was never completely cut off. For these governments, being flush with money isn’t what matters; what matters is that they never become broke.

So the formula of “sanctions, pressure, cutting revenue, and changing behavior” gradually turned into “sanctions, pressure, China buys oil, money returns, and the government stays standing.” And the story didn’t end there. Any regime that didn’t fall became part of the lifeline for the next regime. Every time the U.S. shut a door, the other side looked for a window—until we weren’t dealing with just a few oil deals anymore: a ring had formed.

Oil was the blood of this cycle; money was its pulse; power was its bone-binders. As long as these three turned, the wheel kept turning.

Sanctions were supposed to be a weapon; but when oil still found its way, they gradually became an annoyance. The U.S. said: “I won’t let you sell.” The ring answered: “You don’t have to sell easily; it’s enough that I can still sell.” One shipment here, one ship there, an intermediary in the middle, a buyer with a discount. That was it. It didn’t even require billions of dollars to be brought into the country; it was enough that the flow of money never reached zero.

And America realized that to break this ring, sanctions alone weren’t enough; it had to strike the oil route itself. It took Venezuela out of this circuit and now it’s going after the Islamic Republic’s oil route. This time, the U.S. wants to cut off the path from oil to money, and money to power. Only one thing can make this game hard for the U.S.: the price of oil. It has to break the ring without, as oil prices rise, having to pay the cost of this blow itself.

P.S.: Based on this analysis, it becomes clear that there is no war between the U.S. and Iran; rather, the U.S.’s goal is directed toward China, but indirectly. That’s why I say that only Israel’s policies will lead to the overthrow of the Islamic Republic—apart from the fact that no country is in love with us for the sake of our looks, but if its interests are tied to us, that’s enough.