A twofold increase in the price of gasoline outside the ration in Iran, under the current consumption pattern, could generate less than $500 million in additional annual revenue for the government, but it would have a limited impact on the structural factors behind the fuel shortage.

The price of gasoline outside the ration has been increased to 100,000 rials per liter, while each car continues to receive 110 liters of subsidized gasoline per month. With daily consumption of about 134 million liters of gasoline, it is estimated that roughly 54 million liters are consumed outside the ration.

On this basis, the price increase could create about $428 million in annual revenue. Taking into account new cars, this figure would still be less than $500 million; equivalent to about 17% of the $2.9 billion cost of importing gasoline last year.

At the same time, the reduction in CNG supply, the annual addition of about one million vehicles, and refinery capacity limitations have been added to the gasoline shortfall. In contrast, estimates indicate that Iran lost more than $40 billion in potential oil revenue last year due to sanctions and the costs of circumventing them.