Fed Rate Hike December 2026: Will the Fed Raise on 9 Dec?

Will the Fed cut rates in December 2026?

A cut is not what markets expect: as of mid-November 2026, futures prices point to an interest rate increase at the Federal Reserve meeting that ends on 9 December ^[7][8]. Early in 2026 futures gave some chance of a December cut, but the direction changed as inflation stayed high ^[3][5][8].

The Fed's rate-setting body, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25 points to 3.75% to 4% on 16 September 2026, in a 12–0 vote ^[3]. Investing.com described it as the first increase in three years ^[7].

At the next meeting, on 28 October, the Fed held the range steady, but two voters dissented in favour of another 0.25-point rise ^[1]. Since then, hotter inflation data and comments from officials have pushed expectations further towards a hike ^[5][6][7].

This page explains the odds, the data behind them and what a move could mean for borrowers and savers. It reports market prices and official statements; it does not predict the decision or give financial advice.

What are the odds of a Fed rate hike in December?

On 13 November 2026 at 22:00 UTC, fed funds futures implied a 93% chance of a 0.25-point hike in December and a 7% chance of a larger move, with no weight on a hold or a cut ^[8]. These odds come from prices of 30-day fed funds futures, the same method used by the CME FedWatch tool ^[8][11].

The odds have moved quickly. A week earlier, on 6 November, futures gave a 24% chance of a hold and 76% of a 0.25-point hike ^[8]. After the October inflation report on 10 November, Investing.com reported CME FedWatch odds of 88.8% for 0.25 points and 11.2% for 0.5 points, up from about 72% for a hike a week before ^[7].

The table below shows how the readings changed. Futures-implied odds are not a forecast by the Fed, and they can change sharply with new data or speeches ^[8][11].

Why are markets pricing a hike instead of a cut?

Inflation has run above forecasts while the economy has stayed strong, and Fed officials have said further increases may be needed ^[1][5][6]. In October the consumer price index rose a seasonally adjusted 0.4% and core prices, which leave out food and energy, rose 0.3%, each 0.1 point above the Dow Jones consensus, CNBC reported ^[5].

Core prices have now risen 0.3% for three months in a row, and the headline index rose 0.4% in October after 0.6% in September, Reuters reported ^[10]. Shelter costs rose 0.3% and accounted for more than 30% of the October increase ^[5].

There is no official annual inflation rate for October. The Bureau of Labor Statistics did not publish one because the 2025 government shutdown stopped it collecting October 2025 data ^[5].

The economy also gives the Fed room to act. The October statement said activity was "expanding at a strong pace" and that inflation "remains elevated" ^[1]. In his press conference, Chair Kevin Warsh said growth in the third quarter was likely running above 3% ^[2].

What did Fed officials say about a December hike?

Governor Christopher Waller said on 10 November that he was leaning toward a December increase and that a 0.5-point hike should be considered if inflation data came in hot ^[6]. Speaking in London a few hours before the inflation report, he said, as Reuters reported, that he would back a quarter-point hike unless core prices rose 0.3% or more; core prices then rose 0.3% ^[5][10].

"Hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk, a risk I am not eager to take," Waller said ^[6]. He added that what matters is that expected hikes are carried out in a reasonable time, not that they come at consecutive meetings ^[6].

Other officials have leaned the same way. In October, Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack voted against the hold because they wanted a 0.25-point rise ^[1]. Investing.com reported that Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson, a voting member of the Committee this year, backed "further gradual tightening" ^[7][13].

Chair Warsh has said he does not favour signalling future rate moves, known as forward guidance, except in a crisis, CNBC reported ^[12]. So the December decision may not be clearly flagged in advance.

When is the Fed's December 2026 meeting and what happens?

The FOMC meets on 8–9 December 2026; the statement is due at 14:00 Eastern time on Wednesday 9 December, followed by the Chair's press conference ^[4][8]. That is 19:00 UTC.

1. Statement: the Fed publishes its decision on the target range and how each member voted ^[1].
2. Projections: December is one of the meetings with a Summary of Economic Projections, including officials' rate forecasts, often called the dot plot ^[4].
3. Press conference: the Chair explains the decision and takes questions ^[2].
4. Minutes: the full minutes follow three weeks after the decision ^[4].

The November consumer price report is due on 10 December, the day after the decision, so the Fed will decide without it ^[14]. From 2027 the Fed plans to use one of its eight yearly meetings for strategy only, without a rate decision, Warsh said in October ^[2][12].

What would a Fed rate hike mean for mortgages and savings?

Changes in the federal funds rate trigger a chain of events that affect other short-term interest rates, long-term interest rates and the amount of money and credit, the Fed says ^[13]. The Fed's page does not say how any particular loan or savings account will respond.

Mortgage rates have eased slightly. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed rate averaged 7.11% in the week to 12 November 2026, down from 7.18% a week earlier but above 6.24% a year ago ^[9].

Two-year Treasury yields, a gauge of expected Fed policy, rose by the most since early April 2025 on the day of the October inflation report, Reuters reported ^[10].

For how a Fed decision passes through to loans and deposits in more detail, see the Pouyam guide Fed Rate Decision Explained: What the October 2026 Hold Means for Loans and Savings. This page does not give advice on borrowing, saving or investing.

What data comes before the December decision?

The main inputs are the October inflation figures already published, wholesale prices, the Fed's preferred PCE inflation measure and the November jobs report, due on 4 December ^[5][10][14]. Reuters reported that an economist estimated core PCE prices rose about 0.34% in October, which would be roughly a 4% annualised pace ^[10].

Wholesale inflation has also been high. For the October producer price figures, see the Pouyam guide US PPI October 2026: What 6.5% Wholesale Inflation Means.

Comments from officials matter too. Waller's speech on 10 November, hours before the inflation report, helped move the odds of a larger hike ^[6][10].

Markets also watch whether a 0.5-point move gains support. The futures odds for a larger hike rose from around zero to more than 10% after the October inflation report ^[5][7].

Could the Fed still hold or cut rates in December?

It is possible but not what markets price: on 13 November, futures gave no weight to a hold or a cut in December, compared with a 24% chance of a hold a week earlier ^[8]. The FOMC decides by vote at the meeting, and each meeting date is tentative until confirmed ^[4].

Weaker data could change expectations. The October statement said the Committee would watch "the accumulation of more information" before setting policy ^[1]. A sharp slowdown in jobs or prices before the meeting could reduce the odds of a hike.

A cut would mark a reversal of the September increase and of the message from several officials. Waller said that if expected hikes were not carried out, rates would fall and monetary policy would loosen "in an undesirable way" ^[6].

The decision will be published on the Federal Reserve's website at 14:00 Eastern time on 9 December ^[4].