🔶 Attack on southern Iran and a naval blockade; Iran or the United States at a deadlock?

🔶 Attack on southern Iran and a naval blockade; Iran or the United States at a deadlock?

🔻A report by Atefeh Chaharmahaliān

As military confrontation between Iran and the United States has intensified again, southern Iran has in recent days become the main focus of missile attacks.

According to reports, these attacks have targeted coastal defense systems, military infrastructure around the Strait of Hormuz, and sites in the provinces of Khuzestan, Hormozgan, Bushehr, Sistan and Baluchestan, as well as Tehran.

At the same time, the United States has also put the execution of a naval blockade against Iranian ports on its agenda; an action that the U.S. Central Command (“CENTCOM”) describes as an effort to protect shipping and ensure safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz, while Donald Trump claimed that control of the Strait of Hormuz should be in the hands of the United States and that this country charges fees on ships passing through.

The U.S. president then walked back an initial proposal to impose 20% tariffs on cargoes transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, and said that the idea has been dropped; he stated he decided to replace it with commercial and economic arrangements with countries in the Persian Gulf region.

In response to the attacks, Iran has also targeted U.S. bases in Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait, warning that any further interference in the Strait of Hormuz will be met with a military response.

The spokesperson of the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Armed Forces, stressing that “U.S. interventions in the region will remain ineffective,” said Iran will not step back from its emphasis on control and sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and will continue to counter U.S. actions. This is happening while the Arab countries on the Persian Gulf’s coasts have so far avoided direct involvement in this confrontation.

Now these developments have raised important questions for observers: Why has southern Iran become the focal point of U.S. attacks?

What consequences will the continued naval blockade have for Iran’s economy, and which side will pay the price more?

Finally, will this crisis end in negotiations, or will the competition over the Strait of Hormuz move into a new phase?

Mehردad Vahabi, a university professor at Northern Sorbonne and an economist, answered these questions in an interview with Deutsche Welle Persian.

Mehrdad Vahabi, a researcher and professor at Northern Sorbonne, whose theory of the “third war of the Gulf,” “Anfal,” has drawn attention in recent months, believes the current U.S. approach is influenced by domestic political and economic pressures.

According to him, concern about rising oil prices, the impact of the war on the U.S. economy, midterm elections, and opposition from part of Trump’s social base to the war pushed Washington toward accepting a ceasefire. However, domestic criticism of the terms of the agreement led him again toward intensifying military pressure.

This analyst on Iran’s affairs explains: “The focus of attacks on southern Iran is a prelude to intensifying the naval blockade and increasing economic pressure on the Islamic Republic in the hope of changing behavior, even though Trump seeks to keep the threat of regime change in view as an option in the horizon.”

He considers this strategy to lack a clear objective and, as a result, to produce disorientation caused by the absence of a plan, saying: “What we are seeing today, above all, indicates the lack of a clear strategy for the United States to get out of the third war of the Gulf.”

Vahabi says the reason southern Iran has been chosen as the focal point of current attacks is the strategic position of this region in the country’s foreign trade. He says: “Most imports, especially essential goods, and a large share of exports are carried out through southern ports. The Islamic Republic’s efforts to reduce this dependence by developing northern ports and trade corridors have not been able to replace the southern ports.”

By describing Imam Khomeini Port as the “main hub of Iran’s food security and logistics,” he points to southern ports as the “critical point of failure” in the country’s economy and adds: “When a large part of a network depends on several nodes, disruption in those same nodes can disrupt the entire network.”

Emphasizing that “the purpose of these attacks is not only military, but pressure on the main artery of Iran’s foreign trade and the supply chain for essential goods,” he explains: “Complete control of the Strait of Hormuz is not easy, because with its asymmetric capabilities, including drones, naval mines, and missiles, Iran can still disrupt maritime traffic at a relatively low cost.”

Read the full text of the report on the Deutsche Welle Persian website.